Monthly Report | October ’23
Introduction
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings. US valuations and earnings estimates remain somewhat elevated. Local bond yields are attractive. Local core inflation remains contained but upside risks are high. Headline inflation has peaked, and markets are expecting the SARB to be at the end of the hiking cycle. The sovereign credit premium remains elevated. Global developed market bonds remain attractive given the outlook for softer growth.
Previous Reports
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’25
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) decreased interest rates by 25 basis points at the January Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’24
October marked the first month of negative performance since the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU).
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’24
The beginning of the third quarter saw the national election resulting in more positive results than what was expected.
Monthly Report | July ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’24
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to follow suit with rate cuts as local inflation risks remain manageable.
Monthly Report | June ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Monthly Report | May ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’24
Economic data from South Africa has been weak for the first month of the year.
Monthly Report | March ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Monthly Report | February ’24
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings. US valuations and earnings estimates remain elevated.
Monthly Report | January ’24
Tight financial conditions and slowing growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’23
Local equity markets had a negative month during October, as global factors had a significant impact on emerging markets sentiments.
Monthly Report | December ’23
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | November ’23
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings. US valuations and earnings estimates remain elevated.
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’23
The beginning of the third quarter saw the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) pause interest rate hikes, as inflation continued to fall.
Monthly Report | September ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | August ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | July ’23
Last month, global equities rallied 3.4% with Emerging Markets outperforming.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’23
The South African economy remained under pressure from persistent loadshedding during the second quarter of 2023.
Monthly Report | June ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | May ’23
Global equities experienced a 1% loss, while the US market gained 0.6%, outperforming non-US markets.
Monthly Report | April ’23
Global equities rose 1.8% over the month, with the US underperforming non-US markets.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’23
The South African economy remained under severe pressure from persisting loadshedding during the first quarter of 2023.
Monthly Report | March ’23
Global equities rose 2.8% over the month, with the US outperforming non-US and emerging markets.
Monthly Report | January ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’22
The South African medium-term budget during October received a positive reaction from markets. This was mainly due to expected strong revenue over runs along with fiscal discipline.
Monthly Report | December ’22
The last quarter of the year saw global equity markets fall in December, but still managed to end the quarter in positive territory.
Monthly Report | November ’22
Last month, global equities jumped 6.8%, with US equities underperforming ex-US equities.
Monthly Report | October ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings, and the risk premium.
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’22
During the third quarter of 2022, South Africa experienced a record length of consecutive loadshedding. The South African economy also experienced the impact of lower commodity prices and slower global growth.
Monthly Report | September ’22
Global equities were down -9.5% for September, with US equities down -9.4% and ex-US equities down -9.6%.
Monthly Report | August ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings, and the risk premium.
Monthly Report | July ’22
Markets rebounded in July after it experienced the worst first 6 months in almost 50 years.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’22
The second quarter of 2022 was highlighted by a decrease in South African investor confidence due to ongoing loadshedding, labour strikes and increasing fuel prices.
Monthly Report | June ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings and the risk premium.
Monthly Report | May ’22
The earnings growth outlook has deteriorated. Rising bond yields, energy prices and supply disruptions will keep volatility elevated.
Monthly Report | April ’22
Economic conditions have tightened throughout the month of April.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’22
The first quarter of 2022 was dominated by the ongoing war in Ukraine and the actions of central banks to curb the impact of inflation.
Monthly Report | March ’22
Economic conditions have tightened. The cost of living has risen and policy and geo-political risks are high.
Monthly Report | February ’22
Global macro and geo-political risks are high at a time when US equity valuations appear elevated.
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