Monthly Report | January ’23
Introduction
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings. Valuations and earnings estimates remain somewhat elevated. Global equities rose 7%, led by non-US equities, up 8.1%. Emerging markets rose 7.9%, with China leading the way, up 12.3%. South African equities rose 6.8%, while global bonds rose 3.3% and South African local debt rose 2.9%.
Previous Reports
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’25
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) decreased interest rates by 25 basis points at the January Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’24
October marked the first month of negative performance since the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU).
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’24
The beginning of the third quarter saw the national election resulting in more positive results than what was expected.
Monthly Report | July ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’24
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to follow suit with rate cuts as local inflation risks remain manageable.
Monthly Report | June ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Monthly Report | May ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’24
Economic data from South Africa has been weak for the first month of the year.
Monthly Report | March ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Monthly Report | February ’24
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings. US valuations and earnings estimates remain elevated.
Monthly Report | January ’24
Tight financial conditions and slowing growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’23
Local equity markets had a negative month during October, as global factors had a significant impact on emerging markets sentiments.
Monthly Report | December ’23
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | November ’23
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings. US valuations and earnings estimates remain elevated.
Monthly Report | October ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’23
The beginning of the third quarter saw the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) pause interest rate hikes, as inflation continued to fall.
Monthly Report | September ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | August ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | July ’23
Last month, global equities rallied 3.4% with Emerging Markets outperforming.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’23
The South African economy remained under pressure from persistent loadshedding during the second quarter of 2023.
Monthly Report | June ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | May ’23
Global equities experienced a 1% loss, while the US market gained 0.6%, outperforming non-US markets.
Monthly Report | April ’23
Global equities rose 1.8% over the month, with the US underperforming non-US markets.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’23
The South African economy remained under severe pressure from persisting loadshedding during the first quarter of 2023.
Monthly Report | March ’23
Global equities rose 2.8% over the month, with the US outperforming non-US and emerging markets.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’22
The South African medium-term budget during October received a positive reaction from markets. This was mainly due to expected strong revenue over runs along with fiscal discipline.
Monthly Report | December ’22
The last quarter of the year saw global equity markets fall in December, but still managed to end the quarter in positive territory.
Monthly Report | November ’22
Last month, global equities jumped 6.8%, with US equities underperforming ex-US equities.
Monthly Report | October ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings, and the risk premium.
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’22
During the third quarter of 2022, South Africa experienced a record length of consecutive loadshedding. The South African economy also experienced the impact of lower commodity prices and slower global growth.
Monthly Report | September ’22
Global equities were down -9.5% for September, with US equities down -9.4% and ex-US equities down -9.6%.
Monthly Report | August ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings, and the risk premium.
Monthly Report | July ’22
Markets rebounded in July after it experienced the worst first 6 months in almost 50 years.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’22
The second quarter of 2022 was highlighted by a decrease in South African investor confidence due to ongoing loadshedding, labour strikes and increasing fuel prices.
Monthly Report | June ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings and the risk premium.
Monthly Report | May ’22
The earnings growth outlook has deteriorated. Rising bond yields, energy prices and supply disruptions will keep volatility elevated.
Monthly Report | April ’22
Economic conditions have tightened throughout the month of April.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’22
The first quarter of 2022 was dominated by the ongoing war in Ukraine and the actions of central banks to curb the impact of inflation.
Monthly Report | March ’22
Economic conditions have tightened. The cost of living has risen and policy and geo-political risks are high.
Monthly Report | February ’22
Global macro and geo-political risks are high at a time when US equity valuations appear elevated.
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