Archives: Resources
Introduction
Global equities were down -9.5% for September, with US equities down -9.4% and ex-US equities down -9.6%. Growth stocks, more sensitive to the rising bond yields, lost -10.2% while Value stocks lost -8.8%. All sectors recorded negative returns with IT and Real Estate down the most. Emerging market equities fared even worse and was down -11.9% with Chinese equities down -14.7%. South African equities did relatively better and was down -5% helped by Resources which was up 1.3% over the month while Banks lost -7.1%. Global bonds lost -5.1% while credit spreads widened. South Africa government bonds were down -2.1%.
Previous Reports
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’25
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) decreased interest rates by 25 basis points at the January Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’24
October marked the first month of negative performance since the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU).
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’24
The beginning of the third quarter saw the national election resulting in more positive results than what was expected.
Monthly Report | July ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’24
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to follow suit with rate cuts as local inflation risks remain manageable.
Monthly Report | June ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Monthly Report | May ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’24
Economic data from South Africa has been weak for the first month of the year.
Monthly Report | March ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Monthly Report | February ’24
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings. US valuations and earnings estimates remain elevated.
Monthly Report | January ’24
Tight financial conditions and slowing growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’23
Local equity markets had a negative month during October, as global factors had a significant impact on emerging markets sentiments.
Monthly Report | December ’23
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | November ’23
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings. US valuations and earnings estimates remain elevated.
Monthly Report | October ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’23
The beginning of the third quarter saw the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) pause interest rate hikes, as inflation continued to fall.
Monthly Report | September ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | August ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | July ’23
Last month, global equities rallied 3.4% with Emerging Markets outperforming.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’23
The South African economy remained under pressure from persistent loadshedding during the second quarter of 2023.
Monthly Report | June ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | May ’23
Global equities experienced a 1% loss, while the US market gained 0.6%, outperforming non-US markets.
Monthly Report | April ’23
Global equities rose 1.8% over the month, with the US underperforming non-US markets.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’23
The South African economy remained under severe pressure from persisting loadshedding during the first quarter of 2023.
Monthly Report | March ’23
Global equities rose 2.8% over the month, with the US outperforming non-US and emerging markets.
Monthly Report | January ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’22
The South African medium-term budget during October received a positive reaction from markets. This was mainly due to expected strong revenue over runs along with fiscal discipline.
Monthly Report | December ’22
The last quarter of the year saw global equity markets fall in December, but still managed to end the quarter in positive territory.
Monthly Report | November ’22
Last month, global equities jumped 6.8%, with US equities underperforming ex-US equities.
Monthly Report | October ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings, and the risk premium.
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’22
During the third quarter of 2022, South Africa experienced a record length of consecutive loadshedding. The South African economy also experienced the impact of lower commodity prices and slower global growth.
Monthly Report | August ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings, and the risk premium.
Monthly Report | July ’22
Markets rebounded in July after it experienced the worst first 6 months in almost 50 years.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’22
The second quarter of 2022 was highlighted by a decrease in South African investor confidence due to ongoing loadshedding, labour strikes and increasing fuel prices.
Monthly Report | June ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings and the risk premium.
Monthly Report | May ’22
The earnings growth outlook has deteriorated. Rising bond yields, energy prices and supply disruptions will keep volatility elevated.
Monthly Report | April ’22
Economic conditions have tightened throughout the month of April.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’22
The first quarter of 2022 was dominated by the ongoing war in Ukraine and the actions of central banks to curb the impact of inflation.
Monthly Report | March ’22
Economic conditions have tightened. The cost of living has risen and policy and geo-political risks are high.
Monthly Report | February ’22
Global macro and geo-political risks are high at a time when US equity valuations appear elevated.
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Introduction
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings, and the risk premium. Valuations have come down from elevated levels, but earnings estimates remain too high. The US dollar should hold its ground in the current growth slowdown environment, keeping the Rand under pressure. Local bond yields are attractive. Local core inflation remains contained but upside risks are rising. The SARB will continue to hike rates and fiscal dynamics are improving. Global developed market bonds remain attractive given the outlook for softer growth.
Previous Reports
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’25
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) decreased interest rates by 25 basis points at the January Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’24
October marked the first month of negative performance since the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU).
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’24
The beginning of the third quarter saw the national election resulting in more positive results than what was expected.
Monthly Report | July ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’24
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to follow suit with rate cuts as local inflation risks remain manageable.
Monthly Report | June ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Monthly Report | May ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’24
Economic data from South Africa has been weak for the first month of the year.
Monthly Report | March ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Monthly Report | February ’24
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings. US valuations and earnings estimates remain elevated.
Monthly Report | January ’24
Tight financial conditions and slowing growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’23
Local equity markets had a negative month during October, as global factors had a significant impact on emerging markets sentiments.
Monthly Report | December ’23
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | November ’23
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings. US valuations and earnings estimates remain elevated.
Monthly Report | October ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’23
The beginning of the third quarter saw the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) pause interest rate hikes, as inflation continued to fall.
Monthly Report | September ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | August ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | July ’23
Last month, global equities rallied 3.4% with Emerging Markets outperforming.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’23
The South African economy remained under pressure from persistent loadshedding during the second quarter of 2023.
Monthly Report | June ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | May ’23
Global equities experienced a 1% loss, while the US market gained 0.6%, outperforming non-US markets.
Monthly Report | April ’23
Global equities rose 1.8% over the month, with the US underperforming non-US markets.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’23
The South African economy remained under severe pressure from persisting loadshedding during the first quarter of 2023.
Monthly Report | March ’23
Global equities rose 2.8% over the month, with the US outperforming non-US and emerging markets.
Monthly Report | January ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’22
The South African medium-term budget during October received a positive reaction from markets. This was mainly due to expected strong revenue over runs along with fiscal discipline.
Monthly Report | December ’22
The last quarter of the year saw global equity markets fall in December, but still managed to end the quarter in positive territory.
Monthly Report | November ’22
Last month, global equities jumped 6.8%, with US equities underperforming ex-US equities.
Monthly Report | October ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings, and the risk premium.
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’22
During the third quarter of 2022, South Africa experienced a record length of consecutive loadshedding. The South African economy also experienced the impact of lower commodity prices and slower global growth.
Monthly Report | September ’22
Global equities were down -9.5% for September, with US equities down -9.4% and ex-US equities down -9.6%.
Monthly Report | July ’22
Markets rebounded in July after it experienced the worst first 6 months in almost 50 years.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’22
The second quarter of 2022 was highlighted by a decrease in South African investor confidence due to ongoing loadshedding, labour strikes and increasing fuel prices.
Monthly Report | June ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings and the risk premium.
Monthly Report | May ’22
The earnings growth outlook has deteriorated. Rising bond yields, energy prices and supply disruptions will keep volatility elevated.
Monthly Report | April ’22
Economic conditions have tightened throughout the month of April.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’22
The first quarter of 2022 was dominated by the ongoing war in Ukraine and the actions of central banks to curb the impact of inflation.
Monthly Report | March ’22
Economic conditions have tightened. The cost of living has risen and policy and geo-political risks are high.
Monthly Report | February ’22
Global macro and geo-political risks are high at a time when US equity valuations appear elevated.
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Introduction
Markets rebounded in July after it experienced the worst first 6 months in almost 50 years. Weakness in the first half of 2022 was driven by inflation fears and higher interest rates which has now given way to recession fears. The growth outlook for the US and Europe has deteriorated with forward looking indicators pointing to a contraction in activity over coming months. The higher cost of living and production is weighing on households and corporates, central banks have also tightened financial conditions. As global demand fades, inflationary pressures should peak and central banks may deem it appropriate to dial down their hawkishness. In anticipation of this, bond yields dropped which in turn boosted equity prices, especially in consumer technology growth equities.
Previous Reports
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’25
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) decreased interest rates by 25 basis points at the January Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’24
October marked the first month of negative performance since the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU).
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’24
The beginning of the third quarter saw the national election resulting in more positive results than what was expected.
Monthly Report | July ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’24
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to follow suit with rate cuts as local inflation risks remain manageable.
Monthly Report | June ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Monthly Report | May ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’24
Economic data from South Africa has been weak for the first month of the year.
Monthly Report | March ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Monthly Report | February ’24
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings. US valuations and earnings estimates remain elevated.
Monthly Report | January ’24
Tight financial conditions and slowing growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’23
Local equity markets had a negative month during October, as global factors had a significant impact on emerging markets sentiments.
Monthly Report | December ’23
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | November ’23
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings. US valuations and earnings estimates remain elevated.
Monthly Report | October ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’23
The beginning of the third quarter saw the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) pause interest rate hikes, as inflation continued to fall.
Monthly Report | September ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | August ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | July ’23
Last month, global equities rallied 3.4% with Emerging Markets outperforming.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’23
The South African economy remained under pressure from persistent loadshedding during the second quarter of 2023.
Monthly Report | June ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | May ’23
Global equities experienced a 1% loss, while the US market gained 0.6%, outperforming non-US markets.
Monthly Report | April ’23
Global equities rose 1.8% over the month, with the US underperforming non-US markets.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’23
The South African economy remained under severe pressure from persisting loadshedding during the first quarter of 2023.
Monthly Report | March ’23
Global equities rose 2.8% over the month, with the US outperforming non-US and emerging markets.
Monthly Report | January ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’22
The South African medium-term budget during October received a positive reaction from markets. This was mainly due to expected strong revenue over runs along with fiscal discipline.
Monthly Report | December ’22
The last quarter of the year saw global equity markets fall in December, but still managed to end the quarter in positive territory.
Monthly Report | November ’22
Last month, global equities jumped 6.8%, with US equities underperforming ex-US equities.
Monthly Report | October ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings, and the risk premium.
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’22
During the third quarter of 2022, South Africa experienced a record length of consecutive loadshedding. The South African economy also experienced the impact of lower commodity prices and slower global growth.
Monthly Report | September ’22
Global equities were down -9.5% for September, with US equities down -9.4% and ex-US equities down -9.6%.
Monthly Report | August ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings, and the risk premium.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’22
The second quarter of 2022 was highlighted by a decrease in South African investor confidence due to ongoing loadshedding, labour strikes and increasing fuel prices.
Monthly Report | June ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings and the risk premium.
Monthly Report | May ’22
The earnings growth outlook has deteriorated. Rising bond yields, energy prices and supply disruptions will keep volatility elevated.
Monthly Report | April ’22
Economic conditions have tightened throughout the month of April.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’22
The first quarter of 2022 was dominated by the ongoing war in Ukraine and the actions of central banks to curb the impact of inflation.
Monthly Report | March ’22
Economic conditions have tightened. The cost of living has risen and policy and geo-political risks are high.
Monthly Report | February ’22
Global macro and geo-political risks are high at a time when US equity valuations appear elevated.
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Subscribe to our newsletter
Stay informed with the latest insights and updates. Subscribe to our newsletter for expert analysis, market trends, and investment strategies delivered straight to your inbox.
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Introduction
The second quarter of 2022 was highlighted by a decrease in South African investor confidence due to ongoing loadshedding, labour strikes and increasing fuel prices. Inflation increased to 6.5% towards the end of the quarter, which is above the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target of between 3% and 6%. The SARB announced a 50-basis point interest rate hike during May. The next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting is scheduled for 21 July, to decide whether to increase interest rates due to inflationary pressures. The market expects another 50 to 75 basis point interest rate hike. During the second quarter of 2022, the South African Rand (ZAR) depreciated against the US Dollar (USD), mainly due to strong USD dynamics.
Previous Reports
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’25
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) decreased interest rates by 25 basis points at the January Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’24
October marked the first month of negative performance since the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU).
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’24
The beginning of the third quarter saw the national election resulting in more positive results than what was expected.
Monthly Report | July ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’24
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to follow suit with rate cuts as local inflation risks remain manageable.
Monthly Report | June ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Monthly Report | May ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’24
Economic data from South Africa has been weak for the first month of the year.
Monthly Report | March ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Monthly Report | February ’24
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings. US valuations and earnings estimates remain elevated.
Monthly Report | January ’24
Tight financial conditions and slowing growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’23
Local equity markets had a negative month during October, as global factors had a significant impact on emerging markets sentiments.
Monthly Report | December ’23
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | November ’23
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings. US valuations and earnings estimates remain elevated.
Monthly Report | October ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’23
The beginning of the third quarter saw the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) pause interest rate hikes, as inflation continued to fall.
Monthly Report | September ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | August ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | July ’23
Last month, global equities rallied 3.4% with Emerging Markets outperforming.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’23
The South African economy remained under pressure from persistent loadshedding during the second quarter of 2023.
Monthly Report | June ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | May ’23
Global equities experienced a 1% loss, while the US market gained 0.6%, outperforming non-US markets.
Monthly Report | April ’23
Global equities rose 1.8% over the month, with the US underperforming non-US markets.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’23
The South African economy remained under severe pressure from persisting loadshedding during the first quarter of 2023.
Monthly Report | March ’23
Global equities rose 2.8% over the month, with the US outperforming non-US and emerging markets.
Monthly Report | January ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’22
The South African medium-term budget during October received a positive reaction from markets. This was mainly due to expected strong revenue over runs along with fiscal discipline.
Monthly Report | December ’22
The last quarter of the year saw global equity markets fall in December, but still managed to end the quarter in positive territory.
Monthly Report | November ’22
Last month, global equities jumped 6.8%, with US equities underperforming ex-US equities.
Monthly Report | October ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings, and the risk premium.
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’22
During the third quarter of 2022, South Africa experienced a record length of consecutive loadshedding. The South African economy also experienced the impact of lower commodity prices and slower global growth.
Monthly Report | September ’22
Global equities were down -9.5% for September, with US equities down -9.4% and ex-US equities down -9.6%.
Monthly Report | August ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings, and the risk premium.
Monthly Report | July ’22
Markets rebounded in July after it experienced the worst first 6 months in almost 50 years.
Monthly Report | June ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings and the risk premium.
Monthly Report | May ’22
The earnings growth outlook has deteriorated. Rising bond yields, energy prices and supply disruptions will keep volatility elevated.
Monthly Report | April ’22
Economic conditions have tightened throughout the month of April.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’22
The first quarter of 2022 was dominated by the ongoing war in Ukraine and the actions of central banks to curb the impact of inflation.
Monthly Report | March ’22
Economic conditions have tightened. The cost of living has risen and policy and geo-political risks are high.
Monthly Report | February ’22
Global macro and geo-political risks are high at a time when US equity valuations appear elevated.
We are Fairtree
Subscribe to our newsletter
Stay informed with the latest insights and updates. Subscribe to our newsletter for expert analysis, market trends, and investment strategies delivered straight to your inbox.
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Introduction
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings and the risk premium. Valuations have come down from elevated levels but earnings estimates remain too high. Year to date global equities were down -21%. Chinese equities were down -12%, outperforming US equities, down -20%. Growth stocks also significantly underperformed Value stocks. South African equities fared much better and was down only -6% by mid-year, with almost all of the negative performance happening in June.
Previous Reports
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’25
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) decreased interest rates by 25 basis points at the January Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’24
October marked the first month of negative performance since the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU).
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’24
The beginning of the third quarter saw the national election resulting in more positive results than what was expected.
Monthly Report | July ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’24
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to follow suit with rate cuts as local inflation risks remain manageable.
Monthly Report | June ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Monthly Report | May ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’24
Economic data from South Africa has been weak for the first month of the year.
Monthly Report | March ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Monthly Report | February ’24
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings. US valuations and earnings estimates remain elevated.
Monthly Report | January ’24
Tight financial conditions and slowing growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’23
Local equity markets had a negative month during October, as global factors had a significant impact on emerging markets sentiments.
Monthly Report | December ’23
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | November ’23
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings. US valuations and earnings estimates remain elevated.
Monthly Report | October ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’23
The beginning of the third quarter saw the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) pause interest rate hikes, as inflation continued to fall.
Monthly Report | September ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | August ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | July ’23
Last month, global equities rallied 3.4% with Emerging Markets outperforming.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’23
The South African economy remained under pressure from persistent loadshedding during the second quarter of 2023.
Monthly Report | June ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | May ’23
Global equities experienced a 1% loss, while the US market gained 0.6%, outperforming non-US markets.
Monthly Report | April ’23
Global equities rose 1.8% over the month, with the US underperforming non-US markets.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’23
The South African economy remained under severe pressure from persisting loadshedding during the first quarter of 2023.
Monthly Report | March ’23
Global equities rose 2.8% over the month, with the US outperforming non-US and emerging markets.
Monthly Report | January ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’22
The South African medium-term budget during October received a positive reaction from markets. This was mainly due to expected strong revenue over runs along with fiscal discipline.
Monthly Report | December ’22
The last quarter of the year saw global equity markets fall in December, but still managed to end the quarter in positive territory.
Monthly Report | November ’22
Last month, global equities jumped 6.8%, with US equities underperforming ex-US equities.
Monthly Report | October ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings, and the risk premium.
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’22
During the third quarter of 2022, South Africa experienced a record length of consecutive loadshedding. The South African economy also experienced the impact of lower commodity prices and slower global growth.
Monthly Report | September ’22
Global equities were down -9.5% for September, with US equities down -9.4% and ex-US equities down -9.6%.
Monthly Report | August ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings, and the risk premium.
Monthly Report | July ’22
Markets rebounded in July after it experienced the worst first 6 months in almost 50 years.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’22
The second quarter of 2022 was highlighted by a decrease in South African investor confidence due to ongoing loadshedding, labour strikes and increasing fuel prices.
Monthly Report | May ’22
The earnings growth outlook has deteriorated. Rising bond yields, energy prices and supply disruptions will keep volatility elevated.
Monthly Report | April ’22
Economic conditions have tightened throughout the month of April.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’22
The first quarter of 2022 was dominated by the ongoing war in Ukraine and the actions of central banks to curb the impact of inflation.
Monthly Report | March ’22
Economic conditions have tightened. The cost of living has risen and policy and geo-political risks are high.
Monthly Report | February ’22
Global macro and geo-political risks are high at a time when US equity valuations appear elevated.
We are Fairtree
Subscribe to our newsletter
Stay informed with the latest insights and updates. Subscribe to our newsletter for expert analysis, market trends, and investment strategies delivered straight to your inbox.
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Introduction
The earnings growth outlook has deteriorated. Rising bond yields, energy prices and supply disruptions will keep volatility elevated. Globally, the cost of living has risen to uncomfortable levels denting, consumer confidence and corporate profits. Household incomes remain deeply negative in real terms and the job market remains very tight. Energy costs are rising, supply chains remain fragile and rising wages will continue to add pressure to corporate profits. Economic data is also softening, but household balance sheets remain in decent shape, especially in the US.
Previous Reports
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’25
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) decreased interest rates by 25 basis points at the January Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’24
October marked the first month of negative performance since the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU).
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’24
The beginning of the third quarter saw the national election resulting in more positive results than what was expected.
Monthly Report | July ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’24
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to follow suit with rate cuts as local inflation risks remain manageable.
Monthly Report | June ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Monthly Report | May ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’24
Economic data from South Africa has been weak for the first month of the year.
Monthly Report | March ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Monthly Report | February ’24
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings. US valuations and earnings estimates remain elevated.
Monthly Report | January ’24
Tight financial conditions and slowing growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’23
Local equity markets had a negative month during October, as global factors had a significant impact on emerging markets sentiments.
Monthly Report | December ’23
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | November ’23
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings. US valuations and earnings estimates remain elevated.
Monthly Report | October ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’23
The beginning of the third quarter saw the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) pause interest rate hikes, as inflation continued to fall.
Monthly Report | September ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | August ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | July ’23
Last month, global equities rallied 3.4% with Emerging Markets outperforming.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’23
The South African economy remained under pressure from persistent loadshedding during the second quarter of 2023.
Monthly Report | June ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | May ’23
Global equities experienced a 1% loss, while the US market gained 0.6%, outperforming non-US markets.
Monthly Report | April ’23
Global equities rose 1.8% over the month, with the US underperforming non-US markets.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’23
The South African economy remained under severe pressure from persisting loadshedding during the first quarter of 2023.
Monthly Report | March ’23
Global equities rose 2.8% over the month, with the US outperforming non-US and emerging markets.
Monthly Report | January ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’22
The South African medium-term budget during October received a positive reaction from markets. This was mainly due to expected strong revenue over runs along with fiscal discipline.
Monthly Report | December ’22
The last quarter of the year saw global equity markets fall in December, but still managed to end the quarter in positive territory.
Monthly Report | November ’22
Last month, global equities jumped 6.8%, with US equities underperforming ex-US equities.
Monthly Report | October ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings, and the risk premium.
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’22
During the third quarter of 2022, South Africa experienced a record length of consecutive loadshedding. The South African economy also experienced the impact of lower commodity prices and slower global growth.
Monthly Report | September ’22
Global equities were down -9.5% for September, with US equities down -9.4% and ex-US equities down -9.6%.
Monthly Report | August ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings, and the risk premium.
Monthly Report | July ’22
Markets rebounded in July after it experienced the worst first 6 months in almost 50 years.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’22
The second quarter of 2022 was highlighted by a decrease in South African investor confidence due to ongoing loadshedding, labour strikes and increasing fuel prices.
Monthly Report | June ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings and the risk premium.
Monthly Report | April ’22
Economic conditions have tightened throughout the month of April.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’22
The first quarter of 2022 was dominated by the ongoing war in Ukraine and the actions of central banks to curb the impact of inflation.
Monthly Report | March ’22
Economic conditions have tightened. The cost of living has risen and policy and geo-political risks are high.
Monthly Report | February ’22
Global macro and geo-political risks are high at a time when US equity valuations appear elevated.
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Introduction
Economic conditions have tightened throughout the month of April. The cost of living has risen throughout the world and policy and geo-political risks are high. The earnings growth outlook has deteriorated but remain positive heading into the second quarter of 2022. Rising bond yields, energy prices and supply disruptions will keep volatility elevated.
Previous Reports
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’25
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) decreased interest rates by 25 basis points at the January Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’24
October marked the first month of negative performance since the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU).
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’24
The beginning of the third quarter saw the national election resulting in more positive results than what was expected.
Monthly Report | July ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’24
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to follow suit with rate cuts as local inflation risks remain manageable.
Monthly Report | June ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Monthly Report | May ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’24
Economic data from South Africa has been weak for the first month of the year.
Monthly Report | March ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Monthly Report | February ’24
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings. US valuations and earnings estimates remain elevated.
Monthly Report | January ’24
Tight financial conditions and slowing growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’23
Local equity markets had a negative month during October, as global factors had a significant impact on emerging markets sentiments.
Monthly Report | December ’23
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | November ’23
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings. US valuations and earnings estimates remain elevated.
Monthly Report | October ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’23
The beginning of the third quarter saw the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) pause interest rate hikes, as inflation continued to fall.
Monthly Report | September ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | August ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | July ’23
Last month, global equities rallied 3.4% with Emerging Markets outperforming.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’23
The South African economy remained under pressure from persistent loadshedding during the second quarter of 2023.
Monthly Report | June ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | May ’23
Global equities experienced a 1% loss, while the US market gained 0.6%, outperforming non-US markets.
Monthly Report | April ’23
Global equities rose 1.8% over the month, with the US underperforming non-US markets.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’23
The South African economy remained under severe pressure from persisting loadshedding during the first quarter of 2023.
Monthly Report | March ’23
Global equities rose 2.8% over the month, with the US outperforming non-US and emerging markets.
Monthly Report | January ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’22
The South African medium-term budget during October received a positive reaction from markets. This was mainly due to expected strong revenue over runs along with fiscal discipline.
Monthly Report | December ’22
The last quarter of the year saw global equity markets fall in December, but still managed to end the quarter in positive territory.
Monthly Report | November ’22
Last month, global equities jumped 6.8%, with US equities underperforming ex-US equities.
Monthly Report | October ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings, and the risk premium.
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’22
During the third quarter of 2022, South Africa experienced a record length of consecutive loadshedding. The South African economy also experienced the impact of lower commodity prices and slower global growth.
Monthly Report | September ’22
Global equities were down -9.5% for September, with US equities down -9.4% and ex-US equities down -9.6%.
Monthly Report | August ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings, and the risk premium.
Monthly Report | July ’22
Markets rebounded in July after it experienced the worst first 6 months in almost 50 years.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’22
The second quarter of 2022 was highlighted by a decrease in South African investor confidence due to ongoing loadshedding, labour strikes and increasing fuel prices.
Monthly Report | June ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings and the risk premium.
Monthly Report | May ’22
The earnings growth outlook has deteriorated. Rising bond yields, energy prices and supply disruptions will keep volatility elevated.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’22
The first quarter of 2022 was dominated by the ongoing war in Ukraine and the actions of central banks to curb the impact of inflation.
Monthly Report | March ’22
Economic conditions have tightened. The cost of living has risen and policy and geo-political risks are high.
Monthly Report | February ’22
Global macro and geo-political risks are high at a time when US equity valuations appear elevated.
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Subscribe to our newsletter
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Introduction
The first quarter of 2022 was dominated by the ongoing war in Ukraine and the actions of central banks to curb the impact of inflation. Economic data from South Africa came out better than expected during the first quarter of 2022. Despite high unemployment levels, increasing fuel and food prices, household spending remains high. The South African Terms of Trade benefited from increased commodity demand and higher prices during the last few months. Headline inflation has increased during March and should remain around 6% for the next few months, while core inflation remains within expectation of 34%. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) announced a 0.25% rate hike in March, but could potentially feel pressure to increase rates at a faster pace from May. The South African Rand (ZAR) has strengthened throughout the first quarter as further interest rate increases are expected during 2022, making South African assets more attractive globally.
Previous Reports
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’25
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) decreased interest rates by 25 basis points at the January Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’24
October marked the first month of negative performance since the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU).
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’24
The beginning of the third quarter saw the national election resulting in more positive results than what was expected.
Monthly Report | July ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’24
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to follow suit with rate cuts as local inflation risks remain manageable.
Monthly Report | June ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Monthly Report | May ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’24
Economic data from South Africa has been weak for the first month of the year.
Monthly Report | March ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Monthly Report | February ’24
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings. US valuations and earnings estimates remain elevated.
Monthly Report | January ’24
Tight financial conditions and slowing growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’23
Local equity markets had a negative month during October, as global factors had a significant impact on emerging markets sentiments.
Monthly Report | December ’23
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | November ’23
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings. US valuations and earnings estimates remain elevated.
Monthly Report | October ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’23
The beginning of the third quarter saw the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) pause interest rate hikes, as inflation continued to fall.
Monthly Report | September ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | August ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | July ’23
Last month, global equities rallied 3.4% with Emerging Markets outperforming.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’23
The South African economy remained under pressure from persistent loadshedding during the second quarter of 2023.
Monthly Report | June ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | May ’23
Global equities experienced a 1% loss, while the US market gained 0.6%, outperforming non-US markets.
Monthly Report | April ’23
Global equities rose 1.8% over the month, with the US underperforming non-US markets.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’23
The South African economy remained under severe pressure from persisting loadshedding during the first quarter of 2023.
Monthly Report | March ’23
Global equities rose 2.8% over the month, with the US outperforming non-US and emerging markets.
Monthly Report | January ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’22
The South African medium-term budget during October received a positive reaction from markets. This was mainly due to expected strong revenue over runs along with fiscal discipline.
Monthly Report | December ’22
The last quarter of the year saw global equity markets fall in December, but still managed to end the quarter in positive territory.
Monthly Report | November ’22
Last month, global equities jumped 6.8%, with US equities underperforming ex-US equities.
Monthly Report | October ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings, and the risk premium.
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’22
During the third quarter of 2022, South Africa experienced a record length of consecutive loadshedding. The South African economy also experienced the impact of lower commodity prices and slower global growth.
Monthly Report | September ’22
Global equities were down -9.5% for September, with US equities down -9.4% and ex-US equities down -9.6%.
Monthly Report | August ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings, and the risk premium.
Monthly Report | July ’22
Markets rebounded in July after it experienced the worst first 6 months in almost 50 years.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’22
The second quarter of 2022 was highlighted by a decrease in South African investor confidence due to ongoing loadshedding, labour strikes and increasing fuel prices.
Monthly Report | June ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings and the risk premium.
Monthly Report | May ’22
The earnings growth outlook has deteriorated. Rising bond yields, energy prices and supply disruptions will keep volatility elevated.
Monthly Report | April ’22
Economic conditions have tightened throughout the month of April.
Monthly Report | March ’22
Economic conditions have tightened. The cost of living has risen and policy and geo-political risks are high.
Monthly Report | February ’22
Global macro and geo-political risks are high at a time when US equity valuations appear elevated.
We are Fairtree
Subscribe to our newsletter
Stay informed with the latest insights and updates. Subscribe to our newsletter for expert analysis, market trends, and investment strategies delivered straight to your inbox.
"*" indicates required fields
Introduction
Economic conditions have tightened. The cost of living has risen and policy and geo-political risks are high. The earnings growth outlook has deteriorated but remain positive. Rising bond yields, energy prices and supply disruptions will keep volatility elevated.
Previous Reports
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’25
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) decreased interest rates by 25 basis points at the January Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’24
October marked the first month of negative performance since the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU).
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’24
The beginning of the third quarter saw the national election resulting in more positive results than what was expected.
Monthly Report | July ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’24
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to follow suit with rate cuts as local inflation risks remain manageable.
Monthly Report | June ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Monthly Report | May ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’24
Economic data from South Africa has been weak for the first month of the year.
Monthly Report | March ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Monthly Report | February ’24
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings. US valuations and earnings estimates remain elevated.
Monthly Report | January ’24
Tight financial conditions and slowing growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’23
Local equity markets had a negative month during October, as global factors had a significant impact on emerging markets sentiments.
Monthly Report | December ’23
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | November ’23
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings. US valuations and earnings estimates remain elevated.
Monthly Report | October ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’23
The beginning of the third quarter saw the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) pause interest rate hikes, as inflation continued to fall.
Monthly Report | September ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | August ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | July ’23
Last month, global equities rallied 3.4% with Emerging Markets outperforming.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’23
The South African economy remained under pressure from persistent loadshedding during the second quarter of 2023.
Monthly Report | June ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | May ’23
Global equities experienced a 1% loss, while the US market gained 0.6%, outperforming non-US markets.
Monthly Report | April ’23
Global equities rose 1.8% over the month, with the US underperforming non-US markets.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’23
The South African economy remained under severe pressure from persisting loadshedding during the first quarter of 2023.
Monthly Report | March ’23
Global equities rose 2.8% over the month, with the US outperforming non-US and emerging markets.
Monthly Report | January ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’22
The South African medium-term budget during October received a positive reaction from markets. This was mainly due to expected strong revenue over runs along with fiscal discipline.
Monthly Report | December ’22
The last quarter of the year saw global equity markets fall in December, but still managed to end the quarter in positive territory.
Monthly Report | November ’22
Last month, global equities jumped 6.8%, with US equities underperforming ex-US equities.
Monthly Report | October ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings, and the risk premium.
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’22
During the third quarter of 2022, South Africa experienced a record length of consecutive loadshedding. The South African economy also experienced the impact of lower commodity prices and slower global growth.
Monthly Report | September ’22
Global equities were down -9.5% for September, with US equities down -9.4% and ex-US equities down -9.6%.
Monthly Report | August ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings, and the risk premium.
Monthly Report | July ’22
Markets rebounded in July after it experienced the worst first 6 months in almost 50 years.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’22
The second quarter of 2022 was highlighted by a decrease in South African investor confidence due to ongoing loadshedding, labour strikes and increasing fuel prices.
Monthly Report | June ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings and the risk premium.
Monthly Report | May ’22
The earnings growth outlook has deteriorated. Rising bond yields, energy prices and supply disruptions will keep volatility elevated.
Monthly Report | April ’22
Economic conditions have tightened throughout the month of April.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’22
The first quarter of 2022 was dominated by the ongoing war in Ukraine and the actions of central banks to curb the impact of inflation.
Monthly Report | February ’22
Global macro and geo-political risks are high at a time when US equity valuations appear elevated.
We are Fairtree
Subscribe to our newsletter
Stay informed with the latest insights and updates. Subscribe to our newsletter for expert analysis, market trends, and investment strategies delivered straight to your inbox.
"*" indicates required fields
Introduction
Global macro and geo-political risks are high at a time when US equity valuations appear elevated. The earnings growth outlook has deteriorated but remain positive. Rising bond yields, higher corporate costs and a softer growth outlook combined with geo-political tension will keep volatility elevated.
Previous Reports
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’25
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) decreased interest rates by 25 basis points at the January Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’24
October marked the first month of negative performance since the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU).
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’24
The beginning of the third quarter saw the national election resulting in more positive results than what was expected.
Monthly Report | July ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’24
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to follow suit with rate cuts as local inflation risks remain manageable.
Monthly Report | June ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Monthly Report | May ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’24
Economic data from South Africa has been weak for the first month of the year.
Monthly Report | March ’24
US financial conditions remain tight with increasing signs that growth may be slowing.
Monthly Report | February ’24
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings. US valuations and earnings estimates remain elevated.
Monthly Report | January ’24
Tight financial conditions and slowing growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’23
Local equity markets had a negative month during October, as global factors had a significant impact on emerging markets sentiments.
Monthly Report | December ’23
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | November ’23
Tight financial conditions and slow growth will weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings. US valuations and earnings estimates remain elevated.
Monthly Report | October ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’23
The beginning of the third quarter saw the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) pause interest rate hikes, as inflation continued to fall.
Monthly Report | September ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | August ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | July ’23
Last month, global equities rallied 3.4% with Emerging Markets outperforming.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’23
The South African economy remained under pressure from persistent loadshedding during the second quarter of 2023.
Monthly Report | June ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Monthly Report | May ’23
Global equities experienced a 1% loss, while the US market gained 0.6%, outperforming non-US markets.
Monthly Report | April ’23
Global equities rose 1.8% over the month, with the US underperforming non-US markets.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’23
The South African economy remained under severe pressure from persisting loadshedding during the first quarter of 2023.
Monthly Report | March ’23
Global equities rose 2.8% over the month, with the US outperforming non-US and emerging markets.
Monthly Report | January ’23
Tighter financial conditions, slow growth and high policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, profit margins and earnings.
Quarterly Report | Q4 ’22
The South African medium-term budget during October received a positive reaction from markets. This was mainly due to expected strong revenue over runs along with fiscal discipline.
Monthly Report | December ’22
The last quarter of the year saw global equity markets fall in December, but still managed to end the quarter in positive territory.
Monthly Report | November ’22
Last month, global equities jumped 6.8%, with US equities underperforming ex-US equities.
Monthly Report | October ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings, and the risk premium.
Quarterly Report | Q3 ’22
During the third quarter of 2022, South Africa experienced a record length of consecutive loadshedding. The South African economy also experienced the impact of lower commodity prices and slower global growth.
Monthly Report | September ’22
Global equities were down -9.5% for September, with US equities down -9.4% and ex-US equities down -9.6%.
Monthly Report | August ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings, and the risk premium.
Monthly Report | July ’22
Markets rebounded in July after it experienced the worst first 6 months in almost 50 years.
Quarterly Report | Q2 ’22
The second quarter of 2022 was highlighted by a decrease in South African investor confidence due to ongoing loadshedding, labour strikes and increasing fuel prices.
Monthly Report | June ’22
Tight financial conditions, higher cost of living and production and increased policy uncertainty should weigh on valuations, earnings and the risk premium.
Monthly Report | May ’22
The earnings growth outlook has deteriorated. Rising bond yields, energy prices and supply disruptions will keep volatility elevated.
Monthly Report | April ’22
Economic conditions have tightened throughout the month of April.
Quarterly Report | Q1 ’22
The first quarter of 2022 was dominated by the ongoing war in Ukraine and the actions of central banks to curb the impact of inflation.
Monthly Report | March ’22
Economic conditions have tightened. The cost of living has risen and policy and geo-political risks are high.
We are Fairtree
Subscribe to our newsletter
Stay informed with the latest insights and updates. Subscribe to our newsletter for expert analysis, market trends, and investment strategies delivered straight to your inbox.
"*" indicates required fields